This is kicked off by John Carvalho’s interview, and people’s reaction to it.

Apparently, word is still not “out”: that LN is dead, and it will collapse Theranos-style.

I hope I am wrong about that, but I do spend a lot of time in this industry.

Here is what I’m seeing!

From Elite Lightning Devs

From Others

From Me

  • I worked on LN tech in the ancient past:
    • March 2016 – “A Lightning Network for Hivemind” – In which I take the LN idea, and modify it, so that A & B cannot defraud oracle C.
    • April 2018 – Where LN technology enables fraud proofs. See: “‘SPV+ nodes’ must have a payment channel open with a full node, or a LN-connection to a full node.”
  • But I have since written this:
  • And this:

Other Compilations

Fake Support

Basic Lightning Facts You Should Know

  • Almost no BTC are on the LN. Only 4,900 – far less than 1% of the 19.5M BTC in circulation. The actual figure is 00.0250%. This number has been heading down both as a % and in absolute terms. It is less than what has been raised by all LN startups.
  • An L1 channel is required to join the LN, so there is not enough space for everyone to join.
  • LN stops working when fees are high/volatile.
  • Most LN capacity is in one of 5 “LSP”s. And most LN transactions are custodial.
  • See here for more
  • There is not a chance –at all– zero chance that LN will compete with a Bip300 sidechain L2.

Random Problems

Send me more

This is not a typical blog post. Instead, it is a kind of database I threw together in one day.

Send me more links and I will add them over time.

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